Europe Roundup: Euro Dips As Greenback Firms Next Test of US Inflation, Gold Loosens, Oil Gains After US Infrastructure Bill Passes – November 8, 2021
• Swiss unemployment rate in October its 2.7%, 2.7% expected, 2.8% previous
• Swiss unemployment rate in October nos 2.5%, 2.6% forecast, previous 2.6%
• Finnish trade balance for September 0.10 billion, previous -0.59 billion
• French reserve assets Oct. Total 216,645.0 M, previous 213,268.0 M
• EU Nov Sentix Investor Confidence 18.3, 15.5 forecasts, 16.9 previous
Future Outlook Economic Data (GMT)
• 2:00 p.m. 12-month French BTF auction -0.651% previous
• 2:00 p.m. French 3-month BTF auction -0.772% previous
• 2:00 p.m. French 6-month BTF auction -0.684% previous
• 15: 00 US Oct CB Employment Trends Index 110.35 previous
Future prospects – Events, other versions (GMT)
• 2:00 p.m., Clarida Speaks, member of the American FOMC
• 2:00 p.m. ECB Lane talks
• 3:30 p.m. US Fed Chairman Powell speaks
• 15:55 US FOMC member Williams speaks
• 5:00 p.m. British BoE Governor Bailey speaks
• 5:00 p.m. Bowman, US FOMC member, speaks
• 6:00 p.m .: German Buba Balz speaks
EUR / USD: The euro fell slightly against the dollar on Monday as investors lowered their expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes from major central banks amid mounting inflationary risks. European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane told a Spanish newspaper that eurozone inflation will slow next year, becoming the latest ECB official to push back rate hike bets on the Marlet. The dollar edged up against the euro to $ 1.1558, but remained below the 15-month high of $ 1.15135 achieved following good US employment data on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1576 (5DMA), a bullish breakout can trigger a rise towards 1.1594 (38.2% fib). (Lower BB).
GBP / USD: The British pound recovered ground on Monday as investors continued to digest the fallout from several major central bank decisions made in the US and UK last week. On Thursday, the Bank of England decided to keep UK base interest rates at an all-time low of 0.1%, a move that hit both the markets and the pound sterling. The US Federal Reserve also decided to cut its bond buying program, an action that had been heavily reported. British investors will also be watching early readings of third quarter GDP data for the UK for signs of strength in the COVID-19 recovery. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3508 (38.2% fib), a bullish breakout can trigger a rise towards 1.3569 (50% fib). On the downside immediate support is seen at 1.3430 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3400 (Psychological level).
USD / CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Monday as traders seek a path between volatile market rate projections and central bankers promising a wait-and-see approach despite surging inflation. The next big test of confidence in the Federal Reserve’s insistence on patience looms on Wednesday, when US inflation data is expected to show consumption growth at full speed. At (GMT 11:03), the greenback gained 0.38% against the Swiss franc at 0.9155. Immediate resistance is visible at 0.9156 (38.2% fib), a bullish breakout may trigger a rise towards 0.9184 (50% fib). On the downside immediate support is seen at 0.9114 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9076 (Low BB).
USD / JPY: The dollar edged up against the Japanese yen on Monday as the bullish US jobs report from October last week supported the dollar. A better-than-expected US wage report, suggesting economic activity was picking up momentum at the start of the fourth quarter. The dollar was offered against the yen and made up ground lost last week, up 0.1% to 113.43 yen. The US dollar index rose 0.1% to 94.308. Later Monday, as many as six Fed officials will speak, with attention likely to Vice President Richard Clarida, who speaks on Fed and ECB policy. Strong resistance can be seen at 113.73 (38.2% fib), a bullish breakout can trigger a rise towards 114.24 (23.6% fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 113.24 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 112.84 (61.8% fib).
Summary of actions
European stocks opened flat on Monday after optimism around a strong earnings season and the European Central Bank’s reiteration that inflation is temporary was offset by concerns ahead of US inflation data this week.
At (GMT 09:00), the UK benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading at 0.01%, the German Dax was down 0.12%, the French CAC was up 0, 21%.
Summary of commodities
Gold prices eased from a two-month high on Monday, under pressure from rising US yields, although expectations that major central banks will keep interest rates low in the near term have supported the non-productive asset.
Spot gold was flat at $ 1,817.28 an ounce at 10:13 a.m. GMT. US gold futures for December delivery rose 0.1% to $ 1,818.60 an ounce.
Oil prices rose on Monday as positive signs of global economic growth supported the outlook for energy demand, while Saudi state producer Aramco raised the official selling price of its crude.
Brent crude rose 91 cents, or 1.1%, to $ 83.65 a barrel at 10:28 a.m. GMT, after falling nearly 2% last week. US oil gained $ 1.13, or 1.39%, to $ 82.40, after falling nearly 3% through Friday.